In less than a fortnight, Chancellor John Healey stands up to deliver the Autumn Budget 2026, and for wealthy families the run-up has a familiar feel. The government needs money: Reuters reported in September that the Treasury has only around £24bn of headroom against its target to balance day-to-day spending by 2029/30, while Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants to spend more on social care and defence. Burnham has also ruled out raising income tax, VAT, corporation tax or social security contributions. With the biggest levers locked, attention has turned to capital, property and savings.

None of the options below has been announced. The useful exercise, two weeks out, is to separate what is already law from what is merely being discussed.

What is already confirmed

Much of the change wealthy households are absorbing was decided in earlier Budgets and is still working its way through. As Spear's set out this week, the timetable looks like this:

  • April 2025: non-dom status abolished.
  • April 2026: agricultural and business property reliefs from inheritance tax curbed.
  • April 2027: unused pension funds brought into the scope of inheritance tax.
  • April 2028: an annual charge of between £2,500 and £7,500 on homes worth more than £2m, widely referred to as the mansion tax.

Income tax thresholds, as distinct from rates, are frozen until April 2031. Capital gains tax currently sits at 18% for basic-rate and 24% for higher-rate taxpayers, according to Charles Russell Speechlys, writing in WealthBriefing, with an annual exempt amount of just £3,000 and a £1m lifetime limit on Business Asset Disposal Relief.

Capital gains: the most discussed lever

If advisers agree on anything, it is that capital gains tax is the most likely target. Reuters noted that the tax brings in around £24bn a year, and that Wes Streeting, now defence minister, has argued its rates should match those of income tax, which are 20% and 40% for basic- and higher-rate taxpayers.

The arithmetic is disputed. Reuters cited a University of Warwick estimate that a comprehensive reform of the tax could bring in an extra £11bn a year, against HMRC's own warning that a ten-point rise in the higher rate could actually cut revenue by up to £3.6bn a year, because people would simply sell less. Charles Russell Speechlys pointed to IG analysis putting the cost of a 40% rate at £3.2bn a year.

Other ideas in circulation, according to the law firm, include ending the uplift that wipes out gains on assets held at death, which is estimated to cost the Exchequer £1.5bn a year, and trimming or removing Business Asset Disposal Relief. Among the advisers surveyed by Spear's, RPC's Adam Craggs put the odds of a rate rise at seven in ten, while Irwin Mitchell's Andrea Jones expected targeted changes rather than full alignment with income tax.

Inheritance tax, property and the wealth tax question

Inheritance tax is what clients worry about most. An AJ Bell survey of 233 financial advisers, carried out in September, found 57% named further cuts to inheritance tax reliefs and allowances as their clients' top Budget concern. Some 47% cited a possible cut to the tax-free lump sum from pensions, and 39% a wealth tax. Asked about pain points in the current system, 87% pointed to frozen inheritance tax thresholds and the coming inclusion of pensions.

No wholesale overhaul is expected, but advisers quoted by Spear's floated narrower possibilities: Forsters' Xavier Nicholas raised the prospect of the seven-year rule on lifetime gifts being stretched to ten years, and Buzzacott's Rakesh Dabasia flagged a possible tightening of the exemption for regular gifts made out of surplus income. These are adviser scenarios, not government proposals.

On property, Reuters reported that Burnham ruled out scrapping council tax and stamp duty in July, but backed the extra levy on homes above £2m from 2028. Spear's noted reports that the threshold could fall to £1.5m, though Winston Taylor's Damian Bloom doubted it would. Fusion Consulting's Mitch Young made the obvious point that property is an easy target because it cannot be moved abroad.

A full annual wealth tax remains the outside bet. Oxfam and Tax Justice UK have proposed a 2% levy on assets above £10m, which they say could raise £24bn a year. Burnham has declined to rule it out, Reuters reported, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that such taxes are hard to run and have been dropped by most developed economies. Kingsley Napley's Kelly Greig put the chance of one at two in ten, and described an exit tax on people leaving the UK, a version of which exists in the US, Canada, Australia and Germany, as the most underrated option.

How the wealthy are reacting

Speculation has a way of changing behaviour before any law does.

The clearest evidence comes from pensions. AJ Bell said £14bn more was withdrawn from pensions in 2025 than the pre-election average, driven by rumours about the tax-free lump sum that preceded last year's Budget.

This time, advisers describe a range of responses. Charles Russell Speechlys listed the options clients are weighing, from realising gains before any rate change and selling and rebuying listed shares to resetting their base cost, to putting assets into trusts, filling ISA and pension allowances, or simply waiting. Spear's reported that some clients are using the split-year rules to become non-UK resident before the Budget, and a La Vida survey of 46 wealthy individuals cited by the magazine found 26% would consider leaving if a wealth tax were introduced.

Most advisers counsel restraint. Dabasia suggested that bringing forward transactions already planned may make sense, while Young warned against selling purely to beat a rise that may never come. Greig's caution was blunter: in her experience, "pre-Budget leaks are often kites flown to test reaction", and irreversible decisions based on them tend to be regretted.

What to watch on 28 October

  • Capital gains rates and reliefs: whether rates move towards income tax levels, and whether the death uplift or Business Asset Disposal Relief survives intact.
  • Inheritance tax detail: any change to gifting rules or the surplus-income exemption, beyond the pension changes already due in 2027.
  • The mansion tax threshold: whether £2m holds, and how the charge will be valued and administered.
  • Signals on wealth and exit taxes: a consultation would be the likeliest first step, as Dabasia noted, so the language in the Budget documents matters as much as any headline.

Until the Chancellor speaks, everything outside the confirmed timetable is conjecture. The families and advisers who come through these Budgets best tend to be the ones who prepared for several outcomes rather than betting on one.

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